Research on Function and Morphology of Future Power System with High Renewable Energy Penetration and its Evolution Driving Force

摘要

Future power system has unique characteristics different from the former and present ones. In order to support main technical features of future power system especially for high renewable energy penetration, function and morphology of future power system are proposed. Considering the significant influence of technology development and value formation, the evolution driving force of future power system is proposed from the aspects of both technology innovation and value reconstruction. The evolution principle of power system is also presented. In Section I, change of outer surrounding of power system is investigated and requirement for future power system is discussed. In Section II, influence of technology innovation on future power system is presented. The key power transmission and distribution technology can be divided into four categories including traditional long-distance transmission technology, new type of substitutive long-distance transmission technology, transmission auxiliary technology suitable for large-scale renewable energy integration, power distribution and utility technology supporting distributed generation and micro-grid connection. For each category, technical feature and present situation are investigated. The developing trend is forecasted. Then influence on future power system is proposed. In Section III, concept and theoretical scheme of value reconstruction are presented. The input variable of scheme is defined as dispersed resources with potential value, while the output variable is defined as innovation benefit and competitive advantage of enterprise. By using three key steps including value identification, value creation and value implementation, the goal of value reconstruction is achieved. The goal of value reconstruction of future power system is proposed from four viewpoints. The first one is value reconstruction from providing traditional energy service to integrated energy service. The second one is value reconstruction from providing domestic energy service to global energy service. The third one is value reconstruction from focusing on single energy industry to cross-industry. The fourth one is value reconstruction from definition as a traditional enterprise to latest type of platform enterprise. Value reconstruction of future power system will drastically affect the function and morphology of future power system, including to promote the upgrade of domestic power system, to expedite global energy interconnection, to stimulate multi-network convergence, and to accelerate enterprise strategic transformation, which is also related to the value implementation step(the third step) in the presented value reconstruction scheme. In Section IV, function and morphology of future power system is proposed. Then, morphology of future Asian power grid is forecasted. An analytic hierarchy process model for the decision making of interconnection mode is established. The mathematical solution of the analytic hierarchy model shows the DC grid mode is the most probable mode for the interconnection of the Asian power grid in the future. Furthermore, evolution principle is presented. It is found that evolution of future power system is affected by the level of technology innovation as well as the process of value reconstruction, in which the former one is the external power, and the latter one is the internal pressure. Considering the usage efficiency and life cycle of stock assets, evolution of future power system should not be drastic, but there should be great continuity and coherence among each stage. In Section V, the theoretical and specified analysis results are concluded.