Green roadmap choice for coupled system of power and urban heating: quick win or long-term strategy?

摘要

Cleanliness of energy system requires both NOx reduction due to urgent air pollution control and CO2 cutting due to long-term climate change pressure. In the urban heating sector, quick-win plans use to be popular that focus on the NOx reduction by replacing untreated scattered coal fired boilers to natural gas or combined heat and power generators (CHPs). Meanwhile, in the electrical sector, all these fossil fuel generators should be cut down in the long-term decarbonization process. There should be a need for coordination of short- and long-term targets, because two energy supply sectors are believed to work in a coupled way in the future. A three-layered collaborative planning model is proposed in this paper: the top layer focuses roadmap economic evaluation; the middle layer applies coupled production simulation aiming at verifying energy balance; and the bottom one checks real-time operational feasibility. Pathways are made from 2020 to 2040 based on Hebei, China. Results indicate that the pathway with quick win will have delayed construction of renewable power, resulting the slow process in emission control. The long-term strategy scheme greatly promotes the renewables for supply in both sectors, but the close operational link forces the decoupling, leading to rebound on emission and operation cost on decentralized heating for the long-term future. In conclusion, the tradeoff pathway, reducing CO2 emission as much as possible with NOx emission controlled to acceptable level, is recommended with good performance on emission control and economy.