Split-Time Method Validation for Estimation of Probability of Ship Capsizing

摘要

The capsizing of a ship is a complex phenomenon with strongnonlinearity and rarity. This work describes the numericalimplementation of estimating capsizing probability by the Split-Timemethod. The common roll motion of the ship is simulated by a 1-DOFmodel and the roll motion in pure loss of stability is by a new 1.5-DOFmodel. According to time course of movement, the capsizingprobability is calculated by Split-Time method and verified by Monte-Carlo method. The advantage and reliability of the Split-Time methodis proved.