Synthesis of hourly wind power series using the Moving Block Bootstrap method

摘要

Reliability studies of power systems will have to include different renewable resources, because of their increasing importance in the generation mix. Wind is now the most developed intermittent renewable source of energy, and wind power series are needed to include it in Monte Carlo based studies. However, to generate correct wind power series for a given power system using ARIMA/GARCH methods is complex because of their nonlinear character and seasonality. In this paper a simpler approach based on the Moving Block Bootstrap method is proposed. This method is easy to implement, and effective if there is enough representative data. The paper describes the features of wind power production in peninsular Spain, proposes a bootstrap method to generate wind power production scenarios and shows the applicability of the method by means of an adequacy study of the IEEE-RTS system adding wind and concentrating solar power.