Time Series Models for Simulating Hourly Wind Power

摘要

The purpose of this report is to describe a procedure for simulating hourly wind power values. The procedure is based on parametric time series models. Such an approach provides a framework within which both the non-Gaussian probability distribution of wind speeds and the correlation between consecutive hourly wind speed values can be taken into account in the simulation process. Simulated time series of wind power frequently are required in loading forecasting studies and in utility planning models. The model development is described, including the statistical characteristics of wind speed, transformations of wind speed, autoregressive models of wind speed, and conversion of wind speed to wind power. The steps in the simulation procedure are dicussed in detail, including the simulation of wind speed and the conversion of simulated speed to simulated power, and presents an example of the simulation process for the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) site at Goodnoe Hills. Some issues are examined briefly that may arise in applications of the simulation model. (ERA citation 08:031577)