A New Procedure to Forecast the Dynamic Rating of Buried Cables

摘要

Appropriate forecasts of the dynamic rating of buried cables can be exploited by networks operators to significantly increase the power transport capacity of medium voltage and low voltage distribution systems, without sacrificing the normal life of the cables. However, forecasting the effects of the soil conditions on the dynamic rating of the buried cable is not an easy task. In this paper, a detailed procedure is proposed to deal with this problem. The proposed procedure handles the changing environmental conditions by exploiting a thermal-hydraulic model of the soil and a model for the thermal exchange between the buried cable and the surrounding soil. The forecasts of external influencing variables, such as precipitations and soil temperature, and of cable currents, needed as inputs of the proposed procedure, are obtained by means of a Support Vector Regression technique. Numerical applications based on actual load and weather data confirmed the suitability of the procedure, encouraging for further research on the topic.