Energy consumption index of China's manufacturing based on grey change-point —from the perspective of policy

摘要

Over the last three decades, China's manufacturing industry has developed rapidly, the demand for energy is rising, thus energy consumption grows increasingly, giving rise to the energy crisis. This article has collected energy data from 28 manufacturing industries from 1985-2012 and normalizes this data based on maximum deviation. It also works out the weight of each indicator and their comprehensive evaluation values to build the model of energy consumption index. In addition, this paper takes the manufacturing consumption index as a data column to determine the change-points in the trend of energy consumption index by using the correlation analysis method and constructing the search algorithm of change-points of a short time series. We have come to the conclusion that there is a decline in the trend of manufacturing consumption index, and the change-points of energy consumption index are in 1994 and 2005. According to the results, the data of energy consumption index is divided into the following three cycles:1985-1994,1995-2004,2005-2012. This research will do further analysis on the change-points and energy consumption index from the angle of national energy policy, and provides references for the establishment of China's energy policy.