Spatial Econometric Estimation of the Merit-Order Effect of Wind Penetration and its Implication on Wind Farm Investment Decisions in New Zealand

摘要

The NZ government has proposed a net-zero carbon target by 2050. Agriculture contributes more than 50% to NZ’s green house gases (GHG) emissions. To date there appears to be minimal scope for reducing methane emissions from livestock. Fossil fuel based energy sources contribute around 40% of total GHG emissions. Greater opportunities to reduce GHG emissions are possible with sector-wide improvements in energy efficiency, structural change, and electrification of transport. The expansion of wind generation in New Zealand potentially provides an important contribution to achieving the goal of having 90% of electricity generated from renewable resources by 2025. Since the future expansion of hydro capacity is limited, as much as 20% of electrity may need to be generated by wind if this goal is to be achieved.