HOW TO DEVELOP A MARKET FOR PROSUMERS IN BRAZIL? AN INVESTOR PERSPECTIVE FOR DISTRIBUTED PHOTOVOLTAIC GENERATION

摘要

OverviewEnergy markets are changing due several technological advancements that include renewable energysystems, electric vehicles and the emergence of “prosumers”. The term prosumers is defined by Toffler (1989) forconsumers that also produce goods and services for their own consumption. It is a new “creative destruction”,considering the traditional energy utilities business model: generation – transmission – distribution – consumption.Therefore, following an international trend in 2012 the Brazilian Electricity Regulatory Agency (ANEEL)approved the rule no 482 / 2012, which established the requirements for the access of micro and mini distributedenergy generation and also for the access to the net metering system. Since that time this rule has been updatedand in 2016 it was allowed the remote self-consumption and the shared energy generation; however, in spite ofthese initiatives, no significant growth is observed. Thus, considering Brazilian potential for solar irradiation andan economic environment with scarce public funds, we propose a method to develop a market for photovoltaicprosumers in Brazil, including both the financing and investment sides – a private investor point of view.This paper is organized as follows: after the introduction, giving more details about the situation ofprosumers and photovoltaic residential energy generation in Brazil, the second section describes the approach, thatstarts with a cost-benefit analysis of this kind of investments for all Brazilian regions. The third section describesthe strategy used to compute some viability indicators and the scenario analysis, that includes the effects ofdiferent taxation regimes and business models. The final section discusses policy implications and researchextensions.MethodsValuation Methods, Cost – Benefit Analysis, Scenario Analysis.ResultsThe base case is a business model of renting photovoltaic solar energy assets of 1 MW of installedcapacity for the distributed power generation market using the ANEEL rule n. 482 / 2012 and its updates for allthe 64 distribution concession areas. Although the base case for this study is for assets of 1 MW of installedcapacity, the items that compound the cost structure are the same for assets larger than 75 kW and equal or minorthan 5 MW due to the Brazilian regulation for microgeneration. These items will differ their values according thesize of the PV power plants. All costs are current and the indicator used to verify the economic viability of thisbusiness model is the internal rate of return (IRR) in comparison with the required cost of capital (WACC).Simulations have been made for six scenarios of discount over the tariffs of the utilities companies and resultsshow that this business model is economically viable in the most part of Brazil. The effects of financial leverageand sources of funding are particularly relevant for the economic viability as well as the ICMS (a kind ofBrazilian regional tax on commodities and services) exemption. The results show that no concession area is viablewithout the tax exemption for ICMS, even considering that prices of photovoltaic solar equipments are falling inBrazil – this is a classic case of dead weight loss introduced by a tax that has no economic sense.ConclusionsThis paper presents a business model of renting photovoltaic solar energy assets in the Brazilian marketthat is viable in the most part of the country, considering the effects of utilities tariffs, diferent sources of fundingand a distortive regional taxation. As part of an agenda devoted to develop new business models for energy inBrazil, we believe that the framework presented has potential to contribute to this important debate in the countryand facilitate the growth of market for prosumers.