Integrated assessment modelling for building sectors – a technical, economic and ecological analysis for Germany and the EUuntil 2050

摘要

Based on an integrated assessment model for energy, greenhousegases and economic indicators, some general scenariosfor a long-term retrofit schedule in the German and the EUbuilding sector are analysed: A shallow but fast renovation pathis compared to a deep retrofit path with lower retrofit rates.The concepts of partial renovations and a holistic approach areanalysed. Hereby it is not only energy demand for heating andhot water that is taken into account, but also cooling energydemand and auxiliary energy. The assessment is done usingthe newly developed Built-Environment-Analysis Model II(BEAM2) with monthly balances, whose development, togetherwith the analysis for the German building stock, has been subjectto the author’s PhD. This paper summarizes the key figuresof the thesis and furthermore the main results of the Ecofysstudy for Eurima “Renovation tracks for Europe up to 2050:Building renovation in Europe – What are the choices”, whichhas been based on the same model. Based on detailed buildingstock data, a highly disaggregated and multi-parameterdataset is developed, assessing the dimensions geographicalarea, reference building, age group, retrofit level, heating system(incl. ventilation and solar), hot water system (incl. solar)and cooling system. A calculation algorithm for heating, hotwater, cooling and auxiliary energy demand is based on thatdataset and calculates the energy demand, final energy, primaryenergy, greenhouse gas emissions, investment costs in energyefficiency and renewable energy measures, energy costs andtotal yearly costs. Furthermore the embodied primary energydemand and embodied greenhouse gas emissions for energyrelated components in retrofits and new builds are taken intoaccount from a life cycle perspective. The analysis is done forthe existing building stock and new buildings.