Risk Analysis Details and Options for Use in Establishing Contingencies

摘要

The authors present their findings on how the objectives of mega-program's cost are best managed by using a risk based estimating and management process. The mega-program risk based estimating and management methodology provides critical data to better budget management such as: (1) Program's Strategic Risk Reserve, (2) the estimated contribution of risk's cost and the cost of delay to the mega-program contingencies, (3) the estimated contribution of the cost of inflation, applied to the baseline schedule, to the mega-program estimated base cost. The authors present a mega-program comprising seven mega-projects and the resultant risk analysis that suggests a better approach to management of the uncertainties surrounding the delivery. The paper concludes that a comprehensive risk based estimating and management process is a critical component to delivery of a successful mega-program.