Analysis of Blocking Population Flow to Control COVID-19 in Multi-regions Based on Discrete SEIR Epidemic Model

摘要

With the rapid spread of COVID-19, many people in China are infected, so the government has taken some actions to prevent it from getting worse. However, one of these actions—controlling population flow (also called travel blocking)—has some negative impacts on the citizens’ daily life and China’s economy. Therefore, the balance between the two and the degree to control population flow should be discussed. This research uses SEIR model to simulate the flow between regions with input of the data from three regions, and each region has regional parametric variation. Next, the analysis of the situation of having no population flow, having regular population flow, and having population flow with control is made based on the parameters of the outcomes. After getting the result of the model, an effective way of control is proposed based on analysis and comparison of the cases. At last, test is made on new control strategy. It is concluded that travel blocking should be made between regions that have great infectious rate difference.