Aircraft noise near airports is a major challenge to civil aviation. It is therefore crucial to develop effective long-term noise mitigation strategies. To support the definition of such strategies, a framework has been developed that allows quantitative predictions of aircraft noise emissions at airports. For a given airport, the approach models future flight plans, noise emissions at the aircraft level and noise emissions at the airport level. This framework is used to model airport noise emissions at a two-runway study airport from 2016 to 2040. A first scenario assesses a plausible evolution based on industry's traffic growth expectations as well as on realistic aircraft retirements and fleet compositions to enter service. According to the results, day-evening-night noise contour areas will not significantly grow despite a doubling in passenger traffic. A best-case scenario assumes no future traffic growth, yet, a realistic fleet renewal. A worst-case scenario includes traffic growth, but keeps the aircraft fleet mix frozen at the level of 2016. In further scenarios, the influence of a noise-reduced study aircraft on future airport noise is examined. In this, both different vehicle-level noise reductions and different entry into service years of the study aircraft are considered.
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