Ensemble Modeling of Unsteady, One-Dimensional Subsurface Stormflow with Uncertain Hillslope Parameters

摘要

A new methodology is implemented to obtain the probability density function of the water table height in the subsurface stormflow process, while considering the hydraulic conductivity as a random function. The methodology incorporates the Boussinesq equation that describes the subsurface stormflow process into a Fokker-Plank equation, which estimates the evolution of the probability density function of the water table height through time in a single realization. The results show that the new methodology performs quite well comparing the ensemble average behavior against the Monte Carlo approach.