Open Pit Mine Production scheduling under commodity price uncertainty suffers from an exponentially increasing problem size as simulations and real options flexibility are used to generate and evaluate multiple production schedules. Robustness evaluation techniques attempt to evaluate a production schedule that is generated on a single set of economic parameters against several varying prices and sources of uncertainty. This approach is invalid as the corresponding optimal LOM mine plan will change for each set of evaluation parameters. Using commodity market futures and treasury bonds as production schedule economic input parameters provides fully price and time-value-of-money risked scheduling parameters that maintain a deterministic problem size. This paper will provide comparative analysis of project NPV's coming from traditional price uncertainty evaluation based on a single fixed LOM mine plan using varying prices versus evaluation based on varying LOM plans that are both generated and evaluated using varying prices. When cross evaluating constant price mine plans against simulations, the upside potential and downside risk of a project are significantly misrepresented.
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