Network Perspective on the Efficiency of Peace Accords Implementation

摘要

Civil wars are as frequent and debilitating now as ever. More often than not, their resolution consists of the negotiation of a peace accord that involves a number of provisions. Although previous work in political science indicates an underlying interdependence between provision implementation sequences, it is unclear how the structure and dynamics of this interdependence relate to the successful implementation of peace accords. To fill this gap, we systematically study peace process implementation activity from 34 peace accords containing 51 provisions negotiated between 1989 and 2015. We begin by constructing a bipartite network between peace accords and their provisions' implementation and explore statistical properties of the structural underpinnings of peace processes. Then, we examine motifs (i.e., significantly frequent patterns) in provision implementation activity and uncover higher order correlations between provisions. Finally, we identify provision implementation sequences (i.e., meta-groups) that are most strongly associated with successful peace processes. Our empirical findings provide new insights for the implementation of peace accords by revealing temporal sequences of peace process implementation that help build confidence, enhance security, and ultimately prevent negative cascading effects in different stages of the peacebuilding process.