Monte Carlo Simulation Applied to Oil Spill Domain at Gdynia Port Water Area Determination

摘要

The paper is devoted to oil spill domain determination in changing hydro-meteorological conditions. A semi-Markov model of the process of changing hydro-meteorological conditions is assumed and the Monte Carlo simulation method is proposed to the determination of oil spill domain prediction. There are presented appropriate formulae for generating states of the process of changing hydro-meteorological conditions and the formulae to determine the realizations of the empirical conditional sojourn times. Next, the oil spill domain in varying hydro-meteorological conditions and its movement are modelled generally and particularly predicted for the Gdynia Port water area.