THE ROLE OF ADVANCED NUCLEAR IN FUTURE ENERGY MARKETS: ECONOMIC DRIVERS, BARRIERS, AND IMPACTS IN THE U.S.

摘要

This analysis investigates the conditions under which nuclear power could play a role in future markets. This study uses EPRI's U.S. Regional Economy. Greenhouse Gas, and Energy (US-REGEN) energy-economic model to explore tradeoffs across a range of assumptions about technologies, markets, and policies. Model results suggest that advanced nuclear could be economically competitive across a range of scenarios and that there are several key drivers that may influence deployment, including energy' and environmental policies (e.g., emissions pricing), additional revenue streams (e.g.. process heat sales), region-specific factors (e.g., policies, existing asset mixes, transmission), and advanced nuclear capital costs. Market opportunities depend on a combination of these factors, which impact the competitiveness of nuclear relative to other electric sector resources and require modeling to evaluate. Without new policies, extensive deployment of nuclear would require innovation either in technologies to significantly lower costs or in business models to provide supplemental revenue streams. With policies targeting emissions reductions, the presence of technologies like advanced nuclear can reduce compliance costs. However, simultaneous cost reductions for other generation options, especially dispatchable low-carbon technologies, will challenge advanced nuclear for competitive advantage and market share.