Predicting safety performance to control risk in military systems

摘要

This paper deals with research of safety performance predictions to allow improved risk control in military. Safety performance is identified as appropriate tool to establish system-wide information on safety which can serve the decision making process on how to manage safety. The information contributes to better understanding of behavioural patterns in the controlled system and the ability to foresee short-term future can provide key elements for justification of remedial measures. Aviation safety data served the research due to confidentiality restrictions in military. Data deficiencies were addressed by the means of developed simulator. Suitable mathematical models were identified and autoregressive model was selected and applied to predict computed safety performance. At the end, it was possible to validate the model. Remarks on its potential application into real military environment conclude this work.