A methodology to estimate the probability distributions of the straindemand caused by lateral spreading due to soil liquefaction ispresented. Strain demand distributions indicate the variability in thestrain demands due to uncertainties arising from the seismicsources, site topography, soil conditions, and modelling errors. Theconsideration of variability allows for the use of a strain demandwith a specified probability of exceedance in a deterministic strainbaseddesign. The availability of a probabilistic characterization ofstrain demand also allows the application of reliability-baseddesign. The methodology provided in this paper is adapted fromwell-established probabilistic seismic hazard analyses. An exampleapplication is shown for a hypothetical pipeline located in theseismic region of the Cascadia Subduction Zone.
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