The Event-Tree Analysis Based on Imprecise Probability and Its Application on Tunnel Project

摘要

Tunnel project is a large and complicated project, which often faced with huge potential risks. Therefore, the risk assessment of tunnel project is one of the essential work. Risk analysis has become a required tool to identify and quantify risk, as well as visualize causes and effects, and the course (chain) of events. During the process of risk assessment, however, because of limited information or experience in similar tunnel projects, available evidence in risk assessment and analysis usually relies on judgments from experienced engineers and experts. As a result, the subjective uncertainty factors are inevitable, which leading the results of risk assessment based on precise probability to the imprecise results. In this paper, an event tree analysis method based on imprecise probability is established for the risk assessment of tunnel project, which making the results of risk assessment are more accurate and more reasonable compared with the results from precise probabilities.