Quantitative analysis of the influence of meteorological factors at different growth stages on yield of winter wheat based on grey relational analysis

摘要

Grain is the relationship between the people's livelihood and social stability of the special goods, is the stability of the world's important strategic materials, but also is the human survival and social development of a solid foundation, the world attaches great importance to this. Grain production is closely related to climate factors, especially in the current stage of serious ecological environment destruction. Climate change has become an important factor affecting grain production and security. The scholars speculate that in the next 20–50 years, China's agriculture will be seriously affected by climate factors, and the grain production will be adversely affected. Analysis of meteorological factors affecting grain production, with a view to the development of food policy and the implementation of grain security system control to provide rationalization proposals. Wheat is one of the main grain crops in China, and annual planting area and total yield are second only to rice and maize. Henan is a major grain production province in China, which mainly grow winter wheat. During the whole growth and development of winter wheat, the meteorological factors such as temperature, light and rainfall are important environmental factors that affect the normal growth of winter wheat. Many scholars at home and abroad have done a lot of fruitful work in the field of meteorology and wheat production. Chinese studies on meteorology and grain production can be traced back to the Northern Wei Dynasty. China's outstanding agronomist Jia Sixie, in his book “Qi Min Yao Shu” described in detail the seasons, climates, crops and their mutual relationships. Most of the above research methods are based on the principle of statistics and fuzzy mathematics to study the effect of meteorological factors on the yield of wheat growth period. The grain production system itself is a grey system, which is influenced by many influencing factors. The large sample of data defects, for food production system is no longer applicable, and grey system theory just to make up for the mathematical statistics method defects. The existing literature review focuses on the impact of meteorological factors on the yield of grain during the whole growth period, there is little literature about combining phenology changes to study the influence of meteorological factors on different growth stages of crops, the results are not well explained its various growth stages of the impact mechanism. In order to explore the influence of meteorological factors in different growth stages of crops, this paper firstly chooses winter wheat in Henan province as research object by dividing the winter wheat growth period into nine growth stages according to the phonological map. Then the study selects the yield data and daily average meteorological data of winter wheat in Henan province from 2005 to 2015 and uses the exponential smoothing method to calculate the meteorological yield of winter wheat, and finally establishes the meteorological factors set and the grey relational analysis model to doubly analyze the influence of meteorological factors on winter wheat in different growth stages. The results show that in the case of single analysis, the average relative humidity has the greatest influence on meteorological yield of winter wheat during sowing stage, tillering stage, overwintering stage and grouting stage; the mean wind speed has the greatest influence on meteorological yield of winter wheat during the period of reviving stage, jointing stage and maturing stage; the average daily temperature has the greatest influence on meteorological yield of winter wheat during the seeding stage; the duration of illumination has the greatest influence on meteorological yield of winter wheat during the heading stage. In the case of double quantitative analysis, the meteorological yield of winter wheat was influenced by the average relative temperature and the daily maximum temperature at the seedling stage, the average relative humidity of the tillering stage and the overwintering stage and the mean wind speed of jointing stage. Generally speaking, the results of this study are in agreement with previous studies, And this article more comprehensive and specific study of the whole growth stage of winter wheat different meteorological factors on the impact of meteorological production. Through the study of the influence of meteorological factors on grain yield, it is of great significance to the sustainable development of agriculture in Henan province and to improve the economic strength of Henan province, which is of theoretical significance to the social and economic development of the province and the improvement of grain yield.