In this paper we present the work recently performed with the goal of continuously enhancing the capability to perform nuclear fuel cycle cost estimates and evaluation of financial risk, by developing a defensible basis for the input cost data, starting with an in-depth analysis of historical reactor construction costs in the U.S. For the purpose of evaluating the Levelized Cost of Electricity at Equilibrium (LCAE) of nuclear fuel cycles, reactor capital costs are of particular importance, since they typically comprise more than 50% of the calculated LCAE. The work is divided in two parts: in part Ⅰ we present work aimed at analyzing LWR construction cost break-down from different sources, including U.S. historical data and detailed pre-construction estimates. Detailed information on the quantities and costs of commodities, equipment and labor were collected and summarized for both the un-avoidable construction costs, and for the median historical cases, which include avoidable costs. An in-depth and quantitative analysis was also performed of historical cost increases and of their primary causes. Part Ⅱ presents work aimed at assessing the most appropriate probability distributions for quantifying the uncertainties around the overnight costs, both for avoidable and for non-avoidable uncertainties. Three statistical approaches are used to measure data variations: (1) Decomposition analysis: (2) Simulation modeling; and (3) Econometric modeling.
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