Empirical Research on RMB Equilibrium Exchange Rate - Analysis and Forecast Based on Multivariable VAR Model

摘要

Since the implementation of the new mechanism of RMB exchange rate in 2005, its revaluation has been anticipated. The issue of RMB exchange rate still is the focal point of various circles. How much space there is for the revaluation, and how far is it away from the equilibrium level? These questions were explored in this paper through application of the new approach of studying equilibrium exchange rate - the behavior equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) analysis method. Also the RMB's exchange rate level was discussed and the trend of RMB equilibrium exchange rate was forecasted under the pulse function in the VAR model system, and accordingly the corresponding policy proposals were put forward.