Using scenario planning to predict/prevent future terror attacks

摘要

After 9/11, the US government encouraged civilian and military planners to think “out of the box” to prevent future large scale terror attacks. Now, civilian and military planners must continue to think “out of the box” to prevent smaller terror attacks like the recent ones in Paris and San Bernardino. These smaller terror attacks are of great concern to everyone in the US and around the world because they can happen with minimal planning by terrorist groups. Are there tools to predict these smaller attacks or at least minimize their occurrence? Attack and Disaster Preparation is one of the hottest current topics in Washington and capitals all over the world. This paper will discuss several forecasting tools that are available to help understand the interaction of the various variables and what our proper response should be.