A methodology for ensemble wind power scenarios generation from numerical weather predictions

摘要

Electric utilities have been using wind power to an increasing extent in order to provide clean energy. However, this resource depends on the intermittency of wind, and this makes balancing supply and demand challenging for the system operator. In this paper we propose a downscaling approach yielding daily probabilistic wind speed scenarios for the turbine hub height, thus making them useful for generating possible wind power scenarios that could be used to maintain the network balance in light of these possible outcomes.