Cointegration Methodology and Error Correction Model used to Forecast The Electricity Demand of The Venezuelan Electric System - Period 2004-2024

摘要

This paper illustrates the methodology used to forecast electric demand of the Venezuelan electric system over a long term based on new methods in the econometric field. This document was divided in three parts; the first describes the theoretical framework and econometric methodology used in the residential, commercial, industrial and official construction models. The second part shows the evolution of the explanatory variables. The third part presents the results of the Venezuelan electric system demand and conclusions. Its main contribution is to provide a unique methodology to forecast the electric demand for the consuming sectors.