Multivariate Coastal and Off-Shore Design and Risk Assessment via Copulas at the Arabian Gulf

摘要

A frequent statistical problem in many coastal and off-shore engineering situations is to estimate the probability of structural failure expressed in terms of return period and design quantile. Usually, an univariate approach is carried out to quantify the risk of failure. However, coastal and off-shore structures typically fail because of the occurrence of a critical combination of the variables at play in a single sea storm: thus, it may be important to consider the joint occurrence of dangerous conditions. The present paper provides a sensible multivariate analysis of the available wave data at the Arabian Gulf, including a randomization procedure to cope with repeated observations. In addition, suitable strategies for performing multivariate design are presented and discussed.