A multi-stage new product development using fuzzy Type-2 sets in a real option valuation

摘要

Introducing new products is a key factor for the success and survival of companies. Managers need to examine every possibility that can occur during the life span of their new product and focus on the right strategy. Even then, launching a new product is highly risky due to uncertainties of the market and competitors. This study presents a proposal of real option evaluation through fuzzy logic for a new product development project in a retail banking market with Type-2 fuzzy sets. A multi-stage new product development is used to have a better understanding of the long term success of the project. One of the real options evaluation technique is binomial lattice model. This technique is mostly suitable for managerial flexibility decisions. In this study different from the literature Binomial Lattice method and Type-2 fuzzy sets are combined to cope with uncertainties of the practice.