This paper provides a case study on analyzing the aviation events registered in the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) aviation accident database and synopsis system and the flight statistics published by the U.S. Research and Innovative Technology Administration (RITA) of the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) to calculate human error contribution to aviation events. From January 1, 2002 to December 31, 2013, there are 686 aviation events registered in the NTSB database for about 1.25 × 10~8 commercial flights under the 14 CFR part 121 regulations. All of the flights discussed in this paper are fix winged commercial flights run by large certified carriers. Two analyses were performed to provide indications of the reliability of performing the highly reliable human tasks of complex system operations. This paper also discusses how the analysis results can be used to inform human error probabilities of different industries.
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