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Backward Probabilistic Model for Contaminant Source Identification in Thailand

机译:泰国污染物源识别的后向概率模型

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Groundwater is an important source of freshwater supply in Thailand, particularly in dry season for non-irrigated area. Unfortunately, our groundwater supply has generally not been adequately protected from natural and anthropogenic contaminants. At least 2 subsurface contaminated sites in Thailand have been identified with extent of groundwater plume migration. Monitoring wells are drilled and numbers of groundwater samples are collected as typical steps in normal practice to delineate the contaminant plume. To accurately capture the extent of the plume, a large number of sampling wells are generally required. In most contaminated groundwater aquifer site characterization and/or remediation efforts, however, it is not economically feasible or operationally practical to fully characterize the full extent of contamination distribution with certainty, even in the most homogeneous aquifers. This paper aims to develop an inverse solution to estimate the amount of pollution, its source location, time origin, and other important hydraulic parameters based on input spatial concentration distribution from real observations which are typically limited. The developed inverse model is being tested within desirable confidence levels using the original contaminant profiles from 2 contaminant sites in Thailand. Compare to the traditional technique of random groundwater sampling technique, the sampling protocol developed from inverse probabilistic model can help delineate the plume more cost-effectively, and allow tracking backwards in time and space to identify pollutant origin. Further practice to predict future contaminant plume evolution may also be made possible.
机译:地下水是泰国淡水供应的重要来源,特别是在非灌溉地区的旱季。不幸的是,我们的地下水供应通常没有得到充分的保护,免受天然和人为污染。在泰国,至少有2个被地下污染的地点已被确定具有地下水羽流迁移的程度。钻出监测井,并收集地下水样品的数量,作为通常做法中划定污染物羽状流的典型步骤。为了准确地捕获羽流的范围,通常需要大量的采样井。然而,在大多数受污染的地下水含水层的特征描述和/或补救工作中,即使在最均匀的含水层中,也无法确定地完全表征污染物分布的全部范围,在经济上或操作上都不可行。本文旨在基于通常有限的实际观测值,根据输入的空间浓度分布,开发一种估计污染量,污染源位置,时间起源以及其他重要水力参数的逆解。正在使用泰国2个污染物站点的原始污染物分布在理想的置信度内对开发的逆模型进行测试。与传统的随机地下水采样技术相比,从逆概率模型开发的采样协议可以更经济有效地描绘出羽流,并允许在时间和空间上向后追溯以识别污染物的来源。预测未来污染物羽流演变的进一步实践也可能成为可能。

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