How to reduce Europe’s energy import dependency significantly by deep renovation of buildings

摘要

During the negotiations of EU´s 2030 energy and climatepackage the political turmoil in the Ukraine has triggered adiscussion around the European energy security strategy. Thisprocess has highlighted the geopolitical risks of imports andthe vulnerability of the EU and its economy.Within this framework the paper analyses the EU’s currentenergy consumption of all sectors in a first step and the sharesper energy carrier imported by country of origin. Based on thisthe second step is a detailed analysis of the EU building sectorenergy demand with details on heating, hot water, coolingand electricity consumption. In a third step the effects of deeprenovation measures (building shell and HVAC systems) in theEU’s building sector on the energy import balance are shownwith target years 2030 and 2050. This part is based on a comprehensivescenario modelling with the Ecofys Built-Environment-Analysis-Model BEAM². Not only the speed of energy demandreduction, but also costs for deep renovation are addressed incomparison with other options such as shale gas, nuclear energyor coal. Since measures to the building shell and regardingHVAC systems are analysed, a reduction of the useful energydemand is accounted for as well as system and fuel switches dueto replacement of systems and/or new installations. Main keymessage here is about by how much energy imports can be reducedin what timeline and what energy carriers play what roll.As last step a brief overview about potentials in other sectorsis given, addressing especially the effects to energy importsdue to increasing energy efficiency in industry and renewableenergy production.