Multimodal Injury Risk Analysis of Road Users at Signalized and Non-Signalized Intersections

摘要

This paper proposes a multimodal approach to study safety at intersections by simultaneouslyanalysing the safety and flow outcomes for both motorized and non-motorized traffic. This studyuses an extensive inventory of signalized and non-signalized intersections on the island ofMontreal, Quebec, Canada, containing disaggregate motor-vehicle, cyclist and pedestrian flows,injury data, geometric design, traffic control and built environment characteristics in the vicinityof each intersection. Bayesian multivariate Poisson models are used to analyze the injury andtraffic flow outcomes and to develop safety performance functions for each mode at bothfacilities. After model calibration, contributing injury frequency factors are identified. Injuryfrequency and injury risk measures are then generated to carry out a comparative study toidentify which mode is at greatest risk at intersections in Montreal. Among other results, thisstudy identified the significant effect that motor-vehicle traffic imposes on cyclist and pedestrianinjury occurrence. Motor-vehicle traffic is the main risk determinant for all injury and intersectiontypes. This highlights the need for safety improvements for cyclists and pedestrians who are, onaverage, at 14 and 12 times greater risk than motorists, respectively, at signalized intersections.Aside from exposure measures, this work also identifies some geometric design and builtenvironment characteristics affecting injury occurrence for cyclists, pedestrians and motorvehicleoccupants.