A Risk-Based Framework for Water Planning Under Non-Stationary Climate Change

摘要

This paper presents a risk-based methodology for water planning under climate change. A risk-based methodology considers the probability and consequences of undesired outcomes in the future. In the context of water resources, we think of undesired outcomes as water shortages of different levels of severity. The probability of exceeding a target frequency of water shortages of different severity is proposed as a risk metric for water planning under climate change. A simulation framework for estimating this risk metric is presented and applied to a water system in southern England to estimate the probability of water shortages of different levels of severity. Future climate conditions are represented using a stochastic weather generator conditioned on the United Kingdom Climate Projections (UKCP09). The flexibility of the framework allows for other non-climatic uncertainties to be considered simultaneously and their impacts on the risk metric to be evaluated.