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Extra-tropical and Tropical Cyclone Vulnerability in Canada: Two Comprehensive Models

机译:加拿大的热带和热带气旋脆弱性:两种综合模型

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Natural hazards, particularly extra-tropical (winter storms) and tropical cyclones, could have devastating impacts on human life, structures, the environment, and the economy. It has not been long enough to forget the destructive impacts of the 1998 ice Storm and, more recently, the costly impact of Hurricane Irene in 2011. In terms of today's economy, the 1998 ice storm would have caused insured and economic losses of about three and six billion Canadian dollars (CAD), respectively. More recently, Hurricane Irene left an impact across Ontario, Quebec, and New Brunswick, causing approximately 200 million CAD in damage to insured properties. To estimate possible damage and losses within Canada due to extra-tropical cyclones, a comprehensive probabilistic model was developed which incorporates the meteorological hazards (wind, snow, freezing temperatures, and ice accumulation) and the associated vulnerability of Canadian built structures. In addition, a methodology for accounting for the temporal and regional vulnerability of structures was also implemented, reflecting changes in the wind and snow load design methodologies as well as the construction practices in Canada. A similar approach is used to develop a model for assessing the tropical cyclone risk in Canada.
机译:自然灾害,特别是温带(冬季风暴)和热带气旋,可能对人类生活,结构,环境和经济产生毁灭性影响。还没有足够长的时间来忘记1998年冰风暴的破坏性影响,以及最近最近一次2011年飓风艾琳造成的高昂损失。就当今的经济而言,1998年的冰风暴将造成保险和经济损失约三倍和60亿加元(CAD)分别。最近,艾琳飓风在安大略省,魁北克省和新不伦瑞克省留下了影响,对被保险财产造成了约2亿加元的损失。为了估算由于温带气旋在加拿大境内可能造成的破坏和损失,开发了一个综合的概率模型,该模型结合了气象灾害(风,雪,冰冻温度和冰层积聚)以及加拿大建筑结构的相关脆弱性。此外,还采用了一种计算结构在时间和区域上的脆弱性的方法,以反映风雪荷载设计方法以及加拿大建筑实践的变化。使用类似的方法来开发评估加拿大热带气旋风险的模型。

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