How do asset managers with long life assets (40 years plus) decide to replace mature technology with new innovative technology? how do they assess the risks and rewards? a case study

摘要

Asset Managers who manage assets with long lives have developed sophisticated tools to establish asset risk and decision criteria for repair or replacement. However when a new disruptive technology appears which offers better performance but has not been proven over long (asset life) time periods the tools available are limited and decision-making remains problematical. This paper will use the experience to date of a new technology ACCC (Aluminium Conductor Composite Core) High Voltage Overhead Line developed, patented and extensively tested before being commercially deployed in 2005. Some utilities have embraced the new technology, others have been cautious carrying out long term testing and others have remained unwilling to consider adoption. However since 2005 over 25,000km have been installed throughout the world at nearly 300 projects in 30 countries. The paper will examine the qualitative and quantitative approaches used by utilities worldwide to examine the options, risks and benefits in the decision making process. The paper should assist asset managers to improve their decision making process for adopting new innovative technology on long life assets with a confident analytical approach.