Dynamic analysis on the impact of monetary policy tools on real estate price

摘要

By adapting deposit reserve ratio, interest rates and money supply to the SVAR model, using the data from the first quarter of 2000 to the fourth quarter of 2013, this paper analyzes the strength and time of the impacts of the monetary policy tools to the real estate price. The results show that: Deposit reserve ratio has a negative impact on real estate price in medium term, and a positive one in short term long term. Interest rates have a negative impact on real estate price in short and medium term, but the regulation effect is more significant in medium term. The money supply has a positive impact on real estate price in short and medium term, and a negative one in long term. The impacts of the deposit reserve ratio and the money supply are more significant than the one of interest rates. As a result, the central bank could use the deposit reserve ratio as an important means of regulation, promote interest rates marketization, reasonably control the money supply, and improve the flexibility of monetary policy decisions.