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Sensitivity Analysis of Environmental Models: A Systematic Review with Practical Workflow

机译:环境模型的敏感性分析:带有实际工作流程的系统评价

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摘要

Predictions of environmental models are affected by potentially large uncertainty due to a range of factors ranging from observation errors in the model forcingto uncertainty in model parameters and structure. Depending on the model application, such uncertainties can undermine the robustness and credibility of the modelling results up to the point that the usefulness of environmental models for supporting decision-making is called into question. Sensitivity Analysis (SA) is a valuable tool for both model developers and users to quantify the uncertainty in model outputs, estimate the relative contribution of the different input factors to such uncertainty, and thus prioritize efforts for its reduction. In the last few years, the development, application and comparison of SA techniques have been the subject of an increasing number of contributions in the literature. In this paper, we provide an overview of this literature and develop practical guidelines to help support researchers and practitioners in the application of SA in environmental modeling. By discussing the most critical and controversial steps in the application of SA methods, we also identify prioritiesfor further research in the field.
机译:环境模型的预测会受到一系列不确定因素的影响,这些不确定因素的影响范围从模型的观测误差到模型参数和结构的不确定性不等。取决于模型的应用程序,这种不确定性可能会破坏建模结果的健壮性和可信度,直到有人质疑使用环境模型来支持决策的有效性。敏感性分析(SA)对于模型开发人员和用户而言都是一种有价值的工具,可用于量化模型输出中的不确定性,估计不同输入因素对此类不确定性的相对贡献,从而优先考虑减少不确定性的工作。在过去的几年中,SA技术的发展,应用和比较已成为文献中越来越多的主题。在本文中,我们提供了对这些文献的概述,并制定了实用指南,以帮助支持研究人员和从业人员在环境建模中应用SA。通过讨论SA方法应用中最关键和最具争议的步骤,我们还确定了该领域进一步研究的重点。

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