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Sensitivity Analysis of Environmental Models: A Systematic Review with Practical Workflow

机译:环境模型的敏感性分析:用实用工作流系统综述

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Predictions of environmental models are affected by potentially large uncertainty due to a range of factors ranging from observation errors in the model forcingto uncertainty in model parameters and structure. Depending on the model application, such uncertainties can undermine the robustness and credibility of the modelling results up to the point that the usefulness of environmental models for supporting decision-making is called into question. Sensitivity Analysis (SA) is a valuable tool for both model developers and users to quantify the uncertainty in model outputs, estimate the relative contribution of the different input factors to such uncertainty, and thus prioritize efforts for its reduction. In the last few years, the development, application and comparison of SA techniques have been the subject of an increasing number of contributions in the literature. In this paper, we provide an overview of this literature and develop practical guidelines to help support researchers and practitioners in the application of SA in environmental modeling. By discussing the most critical and controversial steps in the application of SA methods, we also identify prioritiesfor further research in the field.
机译:由于一系列因素,这些因素从模型中的模型参数和结构中的不确定性迫使不确定来源的一系列因素,因此对环境模型的预测受到潜在的巨大不确定性的影响。根据模型应用,这种不确定性可能会破坏建模结果的稳健性和可信度,达到有关支持决策的环境模型的有用性。敏感性分析(SA)是模型开发人员和用户在模型输出中量化不确定性的宝贵工具,估计不同输入因素对这种不确定性的相对贡献,从而优先考虑其减少的努力。在过去几年中,SA技术的发展,应用和比较是文献中越来越多的贡献的主题。在本文中,我们提供了本文的概述,并制定实用指南,帮助支持研究人员和从业者在环境建模中应用SA。通过讨论在SA方法应用中最关键和争议的步骤,我们还确定了该领域进一步研究的优先权。

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