EXTREME EVENTS PREDICTION FROM SEASONAL CLIMATE FORECASTING AND CROP PRODUCTION SIMULATIONS IN PAMPANGA RIVER BASIN, PHILIPPINES

摘要

Seasonal climate forecasting information can be utilized by water resource managers for planningactivities to reduce uncertainty with the additional predictive information. The aim of this study was todetermine the predictability of extremely dry and wet conditions by looking into past extreme events andsimulating at the basin-scale how well these events can be reconstructed in the Pampanga river basin,Philippines. Three-month seasonal climate forecast (SCF) model ensembles derived from the MIROC-5Atmosphere Ocean Global Circulation Models (MIROC 5.0 AOGCM) were used to drive the Water andEnergy Budget-based Distributed Hydrological Model (WEB-DHM). Extremely dry and wet years in1982-2000 were integrated into WEB-DHM. Some outputs were incorporated into the crop modelORYZA2000 to quantify crop production on selected ENSO years 1983, 1987, 1991 and 1999-2000(coinciding with SPAM forecasts). Crop production, drying and flooding trends were well simulated.