System and method for sub-seasonal forecasts of extreme weather events in winter

摘要

A system and method employing a hybrid method for predicting sub-seasonal forecasts of winter storms and cold air outbreaks (CAOs). In various embodiments, the method includes, deriving a lead-time series of forecasted indices describing a state of stratospheric mass circulation from a plurality of forecasts generated by an operational numerical model for seasonal weather forecasts, detecting one or more PULSE events in the lead-time series of forecasted indices describing a state of stratospheric mass circulation to determine a state of the stratospheric mass circulation during the detected PULSE events and generating a sub-seasonal forecast of winter snowstorms and cold air outbreaks (CAOs) by linking the state of stratospheric mass circulation during the detected PULSE events to one or more maps of surface temperature and wintery precipitation based on historical observation data.