FUTURE CLIMATE PROJECTION OF MEGACITIES CONSIDERING URBANIZATION SCENARIOS

摘要

Urbanization is an essential, yet underrepresented, parameter when investigating futuristic climate changeof cities. The change in 2 m air temperature in August between the 2006–2015 period and the 2046–2055period for 33 megacities and 10 emerging megacities under RCP8.5 emission forcing and SSP3 was projectedwith the consideration of both global climate change (using pseudo-global warming method) and localurbanization (using global urban sprawling map, distributed urban morphological parameters, and hourlyanthropogenic heat emission dataset).In newly urbanized area, the urbanization effect will be significant, accounting for (13.5 ± 5.9) % of thetotal temperature change. In existing urban areas, the effect will vary depending on the current degree ofurbanization. When viewed over a regional scale, the effect will be rather insignificant. It was observed insome cities that urbanization effect originating from urban area was advected by the wind to non-urban arealocated kilometers downwind.