Outlook for U.S. Refining and Products Markets

摘要

This paper provides an independent view of the historical performance and potential outlook for the U.S. refining and products markets. Key drivers covered include trends in market development for each key product (gasoline, jet fuel, diesel/heating oil and fuel oil), trends in refining investment in response to market developments, and an outlook for markets and refining capacity and investment under several future scenarios. Regulatory impacts, including new Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) regulations, potential impact of additional regulations on heating oil and fuel oil/bunkers are considered. The impact of new supplies of renewable fuels is assessed, as well as the positive impact of low cost natural gas from shale on U.S. refining competitiveness. The paper includes the following: 1.Historical perspectives 2.Key drivers for change (economic performance, regulations, shale gas/oil, etc.) 3.The impact of renewables production 4.Scenarios for refining over the next 10 years