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Fuzzy demand forecasting in a predictive control strategy for a renewable-energy based microgrid

机译:基于可再生能源的微电网预测控制策略中的模糊需求预测

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In model based control approaches for the dynamic operation of renewable-energy based microgrid, an accurate demand forecast is crucial. However, the high level of uncertainties in the system and non-linearities make the task of prediction not easy. In this context, we propose the use of a stable Takagi & Sugeno (T&S) fuzzy model to perform the demand forecasting in a real-life microgrid located in Huatacondo, Chile. Based on real-data from the microgrid, located in northern Chile, the T&S fuzzy model was identified and compared with an adaptive neural network, showing the T&S fuzzy model better open-loop prediction capabilities. To increase the prediction capability, an analysis of the amount of historical data needed, and the frequency required for training purposes was also done. For the case study, it is suggested to use a large amount of data rather than increasing the training frequency.
机译:在基于模型的可再生能源微电网动态运行控制方法中,准确的需求预测至关重要。但是,系统中的高度不确定性和非线性使预测任务变得不容易。在这种情况下,我们建议使用稳定的Takagi&Sugeno(T&S)模糊模型在位于智利Huatacondo的真实微电网中进行需求预测。基于位于智利北部的微电网的真实数据,确定了T&S模糊模型,并将其与自适应神经网络进行比较,显示了T&S模糊模型具有更好的开环预测能力。为了提高预测能力,还对所需的历史数据量以及培训所需的频率进行了分析。对于案例研究,建议使用大量数据而不是增加训练频率。

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