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Fuzzy demand forecasting in a predictive control strategy for a renewable-energy based microgrid

机译:可再生能源微电网预测控制策略中的模糊需求预测

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In model based control approaches for the dynamic operation of renewable-energy based microgrid, an accurate demand forecast is crucial. However, the high level of uncertainties in the system and non-linearities make the task of prediction not easy. In this context, we propose the use of a stable Takagi & Sugeno (T&S) fuzzy model to perform the demand forecasting in a real-life microgrid located in Huatacondo, Chile. Based on real-data from the microgrid, located in northern Chile, the T&S fuzzy model was identified and compared with an adaptive neural network, showing the T&S fuzzy model better open-loop prediction capabilities. To increase the prediction capability, an analysis of the amount of historical data needed, and the frequency required for training purposes was also done. For the case study, it is suggested to use a large amount of data rather than increasing the training frequency.
机译:在基于模型的可再生能量微电网动态操作的控制方法中,准确的需求预测至关重要。然而,系统和非线性的高水平的不确定性使得预测的任务不容易。在这种情况下,我们提出了使用稳定的Takagi和Sugeno(T&S)模糊模型来执行位于智利的Huatacondo的现实Microgrid中的需求预测。基于位于智利北部的MicroGrid的实际数据,识别了T&S模糊模型,并与自适应神经网络进行了比较,显示了T&S模糊模型更好的开环预测能力。为了提高预测能力,还进行了对所需的历史数据量的分析以及培训目的所需的频率。对于案例研究,建议使用大量数据而不是提高训练频率。

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