Analysis on the Development Trend of COVID-19 Outbreak in Beijing Based on the Cluster Analysis and SEIR Model

摘要

Purposes: Through the cluster analysis and the SEIR Model established, to study the trend of COVID-19 outbreak in all the regions of Beijing and analyze the prevention and control effects to provide basis for its prevention and control. Methods: We collected the data related to COVID-19 outbreak in Beijing from January 21 to March 31, 2020, used SPSS19.0 and MetaboAnalysis software to conduct a cluster analysis on the outbreak data of the cases in all the regions of Beijing, the cases from others places to Beijing and the imported cases and built a SEIR Model through Matlab to simulate the development trend of COVID-19 outbreak in Beijing. Results: According to the cluster analysis, the high incidence was mainly distributed in Chaoyang District, Haidian District, Changping District, Fengtai District, Daxing District, Xicheng District and among the people from other places to Beijing; according to the SEIR Model, in mid-to-late February, the inflection point of the local outbreak appeared but there were still the enormous risks of imported cases and the prevention and control was still in a severe situation. Conclusion: At present, the outbreak situation has tended to be gentle but the comprehensive and strict prevention and control shall still be strengthened to strictly prevent the imported cases and resolutely curb the spread of the outbreak.