Research on quantitative risk assessment model and failure probability of oil/gas pipeline based on dempster-shafer evidence and intuitionistic fuzzy theory

摘要

Risk assessment is an important technology to ensure the safety of the long-distance oil/gas pipeline. The precision of failure probability calculation determines the rationality and applicability of risk assessment. In this paper, fuzzy fault tree analysis is described, which is applicable without relevant precise calculation model or historical data. Moreover, Intuitionistic fuzzy theory is introduced into the evidence combination rules with evidence conflict. Based on fault tree analysis (FTA), the calculation model of failure probability for oil/gas pipes is established. This method is helpful for achieving fusion of experts' judgments.