Airspace Capacity Estimation Using Flows And Weather-Impacted Traffic Index

摘要

As part of the effort to develop a "weather translation model", we propose a new method of airspace capacity estimation when the NAS is impacted by convective weather. We base it on the premise, accepted by other researches, that the capacity of an airspace sector or Center is a function of the geometric structure of traffic flows that traverse this airspace (in addition, of course, to the location of the weather). By computing an augmented Weather Impacted Traffic Index (WITI) metric that takes into account the spread of convection blocking a traffic flow, and relating it to a "Maximum WITI" metric for each flow, we are able to generate reasonably good estimates of airspace capacity degradation. We discuss verification metrics and methods, as well as potential caveats. This approach is first tested using actual convective weather data; after that, initial results are presented that use convective forecast data.