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Ten-Year Forecast of Markets and Launches for Suborbital Vehicles

机译:亚轨道飞行器市场和发射的十年预测

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Suborbital reusable vehicles (SRVs) are creating a new spaceflight industry. SRVs are commercially developed reusable space vehicles that may carry humans or cargo. The companies developing these vehicles typically target high flight rates and relatively low costs. SRVs capable of carrying humans are in development and planned for operations in the next few years. SRVs that carry cargo are operational now, with more planned. The dominant SRV market is Commercial Human Spaceflight, generating 80% of SRV demand. Our analysis indicates that about 8,000 high net worth individuals (with net worth exceeding $5 million) from across the globe are sufficiently interested and have spending patterns likely to result in the purchase of a suborbital flight at current prices. Roughly, one-third of these consumers are from the United States. We estimate that about 40% of the interested, high net worth population, or 3,600 individuals, will fly within the 10-year forecast period. We expect space enthusiasts outside the high net worth population to generate modest additional demand (about 5% more). About 925 individuals currently have reservations on SRVs. The second largest source of demand is Basic and Applied Research, accounting for about 10% of forecasted demand. The remaining 10% of demand is generated by Aerospace Technology Test and Demonstration, Education (which will see hundreds of schools and universities fly low-cost, small payloads to provide students a learning tool), Satellite Deployment, and Media and PR (through what we have predicted to be a small but influential number of flights for advertisements, documentaries, and television programming).
机译:副岩体可重复使用的车辆(SRV)正在创建一个新的航天行业。 SRV是商业开发的可重复使用的空间车辆,可携带人类或货物。开发这些车辆的公司通常针对高的飞行率和相对较低的成本。能够携带人类的SRV正在开发,并计划在未来几年内运营。携带货物的SRV现在正在运营,更计划。主导的SRV市场是商业人类航天,产生80%的SRV需求。我们的分析表明,大约8,000个高净值(全球净值超过500万美元)足够感兴趣,并且在当前价格上可能导致购买亚坏航班的花费。大概是,这些消费者中的三分之一来自美国。我们估计大约40%的感兴趣,高净值人口或3,600人,将在10年的预测期内飞行。我们预计高净人以外的空间爱好者值得越来越多的需求(约5%)。目前约有925人对SRV有保留。第二大需求来源是基本和应用研究,占预测需求的10%。剩下的10%的需求是由航空航天技术测试和示范,教育(将会看到数百所学校和大学飞行低成本,小型有效载荷提供学生学习工具),卫星部署和媒体和公关(通过什么我们预测为广告,纪录片和电视节目的广告,纪录片和电视节目的飞行数量是一个小而有影响力的航班。

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