User simulation is frequently used to train statistical dialog managers for task-oriented domains. At present, goal-driven simulators (those that have a persistent notion of what they wish to achieve in the dialog) require some task-specific engineering, making them impossible to evaluate intrinsically. Instead, they have been evaluated extrinsically by means of the dialog managers they are intended to train, leading to circularity of argument. In this paper, we propose the first fully generative goal-driven simulator that is fully induced from data, without hand-crafting or goal annotation. Our goals are latent, and take the form of topics in a topic model, clustering together semantically equivalent and phonetically confusable strings, implicitly modelling synonymy and speech recognition noise. We evaluate on two standard dialog resources, the Communicator and Let's Go datasets, and demonstrate that our model has substantially better fit to held out data than competing approaches. We also show that features derived from our model allow significantly greater improvement over a baseline at distinguishing real from randomly permuted dialogs.
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